The Diverged Trajectory: Part 2

By Emirsyah Kevin Mecca, Attala Sabian Andhika, Maria Ella Risandra Puruhita, Nashwah Putri Az-Zahra

February 13th, 2026 at 16:30 GMT+7

Indonesia’s economy remains resilient amid unstable geopolitical conditions, backed by consistent sectoral performance, namely the consumer, mining, and energy sectors.

The consumer sector remains a steady pillar, supported by preserved purchasing power and stable household demand. The mining sector is driven by high global demand and Indonesia’s wealthy supply of minerals, including precious metals such as gold, supported by bullion bank initiatives that strengthen the domestic gold ecosystem. The energy sector makes steady progress, as one of Danantara’s prioritized investments is directed to promote sustainable and long-term energy resilience, though outcomes remain tied to the execution.

The continuous growth of these interconnected sectors are reinforced by government flagship initiatives,  such as Danantara investments, to create long-term sectoral resilience.

The global economy is being challenged by structural risks, fragmented policy responses, and declining fundamentals across key markets. Nevertheless the global economy can withstand these challenges by lowering input costs to provide temporary relief for consumer-driven markets, and strengthen global coordination in an effort to build long-term sustainability.

Indonesia can convert their policy-driven initiatives into tangible outcomes by effectively allocating capital, with flagship initiatives such as Danantara investments and the integration of domestic bullion banks, although outcomes are determined by the execution of these initiatives.

Structural risks such as persistent supply chain disruptions and underperforming emerging economies, highlights the instability of sustained economic resilience and builds uncertainty regarding the global economy’s ability to withstand prolonged structural and external challenges. 

Indonesia can reinforce the trajectory of its equity market recovery while expanding domestic investor participation ,by deepening domestic institutional participation and reducing reliance on foreign inflows. The Social Security Administrator (BPJS) plans to increase allocations to domestic equities may unlock significant inflows and strengthen domestic investor confidence.

The convergence of domestic demand, downstream industrialization, and strategic energy initiatives promote sustained resilience. The interconnected growth of these sectors can reduce vulnerability to raw commodity cycles, however the impact of their growth hinges on the execution and coordination among these sectors. 

Strategic capital allocation may present the opportunity to unlock the full potential of Indonesia’s market by accelerating market recovery and supporting economic expansion, however prevailing global macroeconomic headwinds could potentially cause the realized economic growth to diverge from initial expectations.

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Sources:

25th ICMSS