The Diverged Trajectory: Part 1

By Emirsyah Kevin Mecca, Attala Sabian Andhika, Maria Ella Risandra Puruhita, Nashwah Putri Az-Zahra

February 6th, 2026 at 16:30 GMT+7

Global markets are facing intensifying volatility as a result of a shift in global emphasis from trade disputes to deep structural risks, primarily persistent supply chain disruptions and inadequate global policy coordination. 

Robust corporate earnings and resilient equity valuations, allows capital to continuously flow into the United States regardless of rising debt and a declining bond market. Simultaneously, gold prices continue to surge due to heightened geopolitical tensions. Emerging markets, previously expected to strengthen,  underperform in response to weak economic fundamentals and growing geopolitical uncertainty. 

China’s decelerating growth has prompted firms to ramp up exports, pressuring global manufacturing and trade. Nevertheless, decreased input costs is expected to contribute to short-term relief for consumer-driven markets.

While the global market faced unpredictable changes, Indonesia’s sectoral economy performance demonstrates resilience. The consumer sector continues to provide a stable foundation, supported by their purchasing power and consistent household spending for example, the modern retail expansion and digital e-commerce.

Government programs, such as free meals funded by danantara financial allocation have provided daily nutrition, stimulating local agriculture from the local farmers and lifting the rural consumption in launch area shifts Indonesia's economic status from recovery to inclusive growth. 

Complementing this, strengthened bullion banking frameworks support domestic gold downstreaming processes, which not only reduce reliance on imports but also reinforce Indonesia’s financial sovereignty and optimize capital deployment across the key sectors

This growth reflects robust sectoral framework and renewed market sentiment, with benchmark indices have regained key levels following months of volatility. Furthermore, the augmented allocation of BPJS funds the state social security administrator to domestic equities holds potential to catalyze significant capital inflows, resulting in amplified liquidity and encouraging sustained long term participation from institutional players. 

Simultaneously, Danantara’s explicit mandate to restructure state owned enterprises is set to elevate corporate fundamentals through operational efficiencies, debt optimization, and governance reforms. 

These efforts collectively reinforce market stability, mitigate downside risks, and pave the way for a more vigorous recovery trajectory into 2026, positioning Indonesia’s capital markets as an attractive proposition for both domestic and foreign investors seeking exposure to emerging market opportunities.

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Sources:

25th ICMSS